A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
