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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.