Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
